There is some potential for turnover in the Canadian government this week on #LetsMakeCanadaFunAgain. While both the heads of the Liberal and Conservative parties are currently in trouble with the Ethics Commission over legal abuses—taking advantage of wealthy private person’s assets—a shadowy figure is rising in Quebec. This could spell the run-up to an extremely contentious general election, whether that happens on schedule in October, 2019, or before as a result of a failed action by the Liberal Party.
Justin Trudeau, earlier in the year, took a vacation with his family on an island in the Bahamas owned by a single person: the Aga Khan of the Nizari Ismailis. The Ismailis are a Muslim sect which is an offshoot of the Shia division of the Islamic faith.
You can see why, as immigration from the Middle-East both in terms of refugees and in general becomes a massive federal issue in all Western states, that taking a vacation to an island controlled by what must be acknowledged as a theological head of state might be thought of as a bit of a political faux-pas.
Worse than that, though, the straight fact is that that sort of thing is almost completely illegal. The Conflict of Interest Act of Canada states that “11 (1) No public office holder or member of his or her family shall accept any gift or other advantage, including from a trust, that might reasonably be seen to have been given to influence the public office holder in the exercise of an official power, duty or function.”
So you can see why Trudeau might be getting into some trouble over this stuff. Immigration, especially Muslim immigration, is such a huge deal that the Canadian state just passed federal laws against “Islamophobia.” So the Canadian state has limited free speech and broken a foundational charter right in favour of the religion for which the Aga Khan does whatever it is he does.
That’s not the sum of the problem, though. On the other side, Rona Ambrose has also been caught having had her vacation on a billionaire’s yacht. Who is Rona Ambrose? Rona Ambrose, upon Stephen Harper’s stepping down as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, was given control via temporary succession rules.
There is, in fact, a Conservative leadership vote approaching which will only be open to members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, and Ms. Ambrose is expected to compete.
However, a shadow rises over Quebec in the form of Maxime Bernier.
Lauren Southern of Rebel Media is on record as having mentioned that Mr. Bernier is an extremely likely candidate to carry the vote anyway, but with Ms. Ambrose’s controversy now attached to her campaign for leadership, it is entirely possible that the vote now even more certainly heads Bernier’s way.
For those who have not heard of him, Bernier is a French-Canadian who is most closely associated with the other populist movements which are springing up across the West—Donald Trump’s New Right, Marine Le Pen’s Front Nationale, and Frank Petry’s AfD.
With Trudeau in a similar situation to Ambrose and a rising populist in Bernier from relatively-conservative Quebec coming into contention first for leader of the Conservative Party and, if he does win the race, into contention for Prime Minister of Canada.
The geopolitical ripples would be fairly minimal in terms of the economy and footprint. Canada is a minor nation in terms of what you might call “physical reach.” However, Canada is a mediator on the world stage, and does a lot of work as an ambassador for both human rights and general humanism.
Should Bernier win, you can expect that his focus will be on the economy, and less on the sort of intrusive, aggressively helpful foreign policy which has proven so damaging to the West as they age.
Foreign aid as monetary supply should ease and then stop as Canada consolidates its treasury and begins to invest that money into its own infrastructure. Fractions of that money may also go into retraining and re-specialising the elements of the middle class which are currently going without jobs, or are in jobs which require government subsidy to continue to function.
Immigration will likely be curtailed until the nation can be judged to be able to support more refugees. Bernier is upper-class and smooth and above all, raised as a French-Canadian, and so you don’t expect Trump’s bombast or flamboyance. Rather, Bernier will likely be very polite and soft-spoken and therefore do much less to trigger the mainstream media into full war-time mode while being just as down on third-world immigration as President Trump is.
The goal of a conservative politician is always to improve his nation and its domestic structures, and if Bernier is elected you can expect that a lot of the socialist bent which has dominated Canada for a very long time (as former PC Prime Ministers shifted slowly to the left) will be dismissed.
I still expect drug legalisation to proceed on schedule, for those readers who are interested, as it’s tough to view that as anything other than another thing to tax and therefore gain revenue from in order to pay for the money that the left has spent across the generations on social policy.